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quantifying_the_risk_of_natural_catastrophes
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Table of Contents
peril = nebezpečí likelihood = probability ensemble = files (soubor)
disaster risk
- disaster risk = hazard + vulnerability + exposure
3 modules
hazard module
- looks at the physical characteristics of potential disasters
- estimating potential future losses - need to create a catalogue of possible future events (possible f.e. hurricanes, that may strike, their intensity, the likelihood they will strike)
- for those catalogues are simulated statistical and physical models
- collection of samples for potential realisations what could happen are called ensembles
- thus any year in the catalogue gives a snapshot of the potential hurricane experience in a single calendar year
vulnerability module
- accesses to damageability of buildings and their contents
- after simulating an event of a given magnitude, the damage it does to buildings must now be computed
- need to have indicators, what building will be damaged during hurricane (= certain building characteristic) → will get vulnerability and damage ratio
- damage ratio = how much money will I have to pay for repair
- small differences in building characteristics and site-specific effect (wind in this case) can cause different damage effects
- → to solve this, there is no particular value for damage ratio, but the whole distribution of possible values
- after i will do the mean distribution of these values = mean damage ratio
- graph = function of intensity (wind for hurricanes)
financial module
- damage ratio for specific event s multiplied by the building replacement value to obtain the loss distribution
- this module computes the combined loss distribution of all buildings through a process known as convolution
- 2 loss distributions for 2 locations → process is completed for all other possible combinations and thus the convolved loss distribution for the total loss of the two locations is obtained
risk quantification
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